Hey all, it's been a while since I've written here. I took a break from the game for a while but I've found interest in the format recently, so you'll probably see me posting here and there again.
I wanted to take a look at what's been performing well in best-of-three sets so far this year. I had a sneaking suspicion on a couple things but wasn't sure if there was anything behind it, so I put together numbers on how individual Pokemon had done in cut this season. Here's the short list of Pokemon that have made cut at least 10 times this year, sorted by win percentage:
- 57% (24-18)
- 55% (68-55)
- 54% (22-19)
- 53% (59-52)
- 52% (46-42)
- 52% (65-60)
- 52% (53-49)
- 52% (46-43)
- 48% (42-46)
- 43% (9-12)
- 36% (9-16)
- 30% (10-23)
- 28% (9-23)
Amoonguss being at the top is a little surprising, but it's felt like an underrated tech for a while now and I think being able to hard-check Trick Room modes and provide redirection when not doing so is, as always, a really helpful tool for teams. Kangaskhan at 2nd is very Kangaskhan, nothing we haven't really seen before. Rayquaza edging out the rest of the pack is a bit strange, but it isn't too far off from the rest. It seems like everything from Rayquaza to Smeargle is about what you'd expect - consistent, above average production. They're all strong choices this year and have proven to be consistent thus far. Kyogre at 48% is a bit odd, but it does have a slightly lesser matchup against the format than Groudon does and probably will always be its little brother in terms of Primal comparison. It's definitely a solid choice and has proven that it's consistent enough to get very heavy usage, but it's a peg below Groudon and it shows here.
And speaking of Groudon, I'm actually kind of surprised it's only at 52%. It feels more like Kangaskhan thus far in terms of raw power, so it's a little strange seeing it clumped in with Xerneas, Talonflame, and the rest. But regardless, the numbers probably have a bit of a margin of error, albeit probably not a gigantic one, so everything here should be taken with a grain of salt regardless.
Now for two Pokemon that are ostensibly viable but probably don't have a good case for said viability. I've sort of infamously tweeted on a couple occasions about Crobat being pretty bad and I think it was 100% pure gut feeling at the time after mulling it over in my mind in theory / never seeing one used effectively, but I really haven't changed my thought on that after seeing it enough in practice. It's okay at everything except doing damage, and when it isn't able to directly control opposing damage and you can figure out what its moves are, the team around it gets outdamaged - an occurence that's apparently a little more common than Crobat actually being useful past game 1. Ferrothorn is about as equally questionable in my mind. It's even more ridiculously underwhelming than in previous years - it appears to be a good option type-wise and damage-wise against most of the metagame until you realize that type interaction has virtually no bearing on competitive play anymore and Water Spout takes half of its health away.
Mawile and Cresselia are interesting in their own ways. Mawile is pretty much a 43% win Pokemon in this format. It isn't quite as underwhelming as Ferrothorn or Crobat at its role, but it also will never be a bona-fide top 10 Pokemon. It seems to teeter right between 10-12 in usage and it feels almost right for it. It's a good option under Trick Room and has functionality outside of it with Sucker Punch, but being incredibly weak to Groudon and not a fan of Kyogre makes it hard to use properly. Cresselia being at 30% is somewhat shocking. I've had a love-hate relationship this year with it and I think it's an alright mon if used as a TR bot, but it seemingly gets overwhelmed once it hits the more well-built teams and better players. If it ends up between 40-50% by the end of the year I wouldn't be at all surprised, but so far it really hasn't shown that it can control the game as well as it should in theory. Bronzong might end up being what Cresselia wishes it could be.
I also took the numbers from the top legendary duos. There weren't enough numbers on the rest, but here are the main four duos (which probably resemble the main four archetypes) and their win percentages:
- 56% (15-12) - 54% (45-38) - 46% (13-15) - 41% (7-10)Not sure exactly how useful these stats are given that three of them aren't even statistically significant, but it paints a really rough picture of the metagame, just not an accurate one. Rayquaza + Kyogre definitely isn't a 56% team outside of the UK, and Groudon + Kyogre definitely has shown more promise than 46% in recent weeks. It'll take a little time to get a more accurate picture of these duos. Groudon + Xerneas at 54% is about spot on, and Kyogre + Xerneas at 41% isn't too far off either.
